Robert Sinn – As Gold Puts In The Highest Monthly Close On Record, The Precious Metals Have A Nirvana Set Up
Robert Sinn, (aka Goldfinger on CEO.ca) and publisher of Goldfinger Capital on YouTube, joins me to share both his fundamental and technical outlook on the larger macroeconomic environment in the economy and general markets, and on the precious metals sector as we round out this turbulent year.
We start off getting into the recent inflation and jobs report metrics, and how those are shaping Fed policy, interest rates / real interest rates, and market expectations of potential rate cuts as soon as the end of Q1 2024. We discuss the recent boost seen in most markets to the upside as this period of central bank tightening seems to have run its course, but then move our focus over specifically to the recent moves higher in the precious metals sector.
With gold putting in it’s all-time highest close ever on the monthly charts today, Robert breaks down the technical picture in the yellow metal, along with silver, GDX, and the sector overall, and sees a nirvana set up for the precious metals sector moving into next year. We then get into the big moves up recently in Newmont and Barrick and the larger cap stocks in GDX as very constructive signs of generalist investors starting to take notice of the PM sector again. We also discuss the changing cost of capital for the junior miners, debate if there some companies that won’t be able to fund new programs, and if this may spur on more merger and acquisition transactions in the near future; noting the recent M&A deals with Calibre Mining (CXB) & Marathon Gold (MOZ), Adventus Mining (ADZN) & Luminex (LR), Silvercorp Metals (SVM) and Orecorp (ORR.AX), and Nighthawk Gold (NHK) & Moneta Gold (ME).
We wrap up with some general comments on why Robert is animated by the current valuations in the biotech stocks related to psychedelic therapy like Cybin (CYBN) and Mind Medicine (MMED), and why he considers these “medical gold” for investors to consider in the year to come.
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https://www.youtube.com/@GoldfingerCapital/videos
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https://twitter.com/ceotechnician
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Silver didn’t care one bit about today’s strength in the USD and why should it?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=M&yr=18&mn=0&dy=0&id=t8567413573c&a=1351817590&r=1701385468531&cmd=print
It’s bullish for our miners that the Canadian dollar didn’t care much about USD strength either.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p88256558487&a=1505938989
The miners are behaving exactly as they should be.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p84882379261&a=1227975242
The miners look very good vs gold too…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80687205172&a=1376288312
AEM is up 25% in 2 months and check out that pitchfork breakout volume…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62796561659&a=1510798624
Here is confirmation: Emerita has gone up for more than two days after an almost 2 year beat down.
Silver up about 20 percent for year and why is Impact Silver down 40 percent over same period??
I don’t know why any of them do anything as fundamentals don’t play much part. But, I have noticed that all of them have their day or time. I heard Rick Rule mention Reyna Silver a couple of months ago and I rolled a couple of my silver stocks into it. It has moved and the other two have not. Does not mean it is better but it moved sooner than the other two. Had something else showed a sign of life, and was really cheap, I might have gone to it. I check the company lists on the ceo.ca site of trending, gains or losers and see what is going on. Atiplano made a move today possibly because of cost increases but they opened a mill. Could be a turn around due to cost savings ahead as a producer. Don’t know, but it moved.
Sorry …Altiplano
YTD silver is up about 5.5% while IPT is down more than 40% and even the much larger AG (First Majestic) is down 30%. The silver miners that have held up best mine more gold than silver. There are a few reasons for most silver miners being down YTD while silver is up and probably the most important one is that silver hasn’t broken out vs gold yet. Silver miners and especially junior silver miners and explorers represent the most “risk on” part of the sector so a bull market is generally required for them to show what they’re capable of and bull markets don’t happen while silver is in a downtrend vs gold. Then there’s the economics of the average silver deposit. Most are either not profitable or barely profitable when silver is in the low $20s so most investors see little reason to hastily jump on bargains that still don’t seem like bargains. The most recent round of significant weakness that hit several companies looked like tax-loss selling to me.
A lot of miners seem to “know” that silver will break out vs gold and that the sector is starting a bull market. Many have already hit 7 month highs like FSM:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FSM&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77079800618&a=1547257436
With one day left, this week looks like it’s going to be the week that we’ve been waiting for for silver vs gold…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03535642024&a=1547259653
Thanks Matthew. I am very interested in how all this plays out. Is this time any different other than the unpayable debt and the failure of system. Stacked in popcorn.
In a bull market the main risks we face are company-specific. For example, look at GDX vs FNV:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AFNV&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p01015091428&a=1004907295
I followed Ex into Reyna before everything tanked. Averaged into full position, & now I’m almost break even.
Following Ex increases the odds of being a winner. It is early in the game after massive suppression. Most of mine are down but Reyna is up 34% only because of when I bought. The suppression has been so great that only 100s of % gains will get us even. When you look at the bogus 12 year run of the general markets, whether you are up or down at the moment in the miners, we have to consider that fundamentally that if a real market for miners takes place, gains will be better than we have had in the sector after the last 15 years. Meaning, that the sector is so distorted and the real economy so destroyed, that if … and it is a big if, we may see commodities achieve their value in a “market place” that we have been precluded from enjoying by intervention.
The glitch is, that commodity increases are contrary to corporate interests. We have surrendered our elected officials to corporate control through deregulation and corrupt election laws. We sacrificed our Supreme Court to the same corporate interests.
The risk is always that the control by special interests may only allow token movement in metals/commodities for brief periods as there is nothing good for corporations and the wealthy to have true price seeking in things that cost them more to continue transferring wealth.
I might add that we have never been in this situation of massive unpayable debt coupled with control of media and data with a lingering financial collapse leaving the people defenseless. There is no guarantee that anything, even tangible possessions are safe, particularly if the goal of those of wealth know that the only way to continue the wealth transfer is to undermine the Constitution. The Constitution is about equality and fairness.
Sheeple have already been fleeced………….. check the debt clock… 🙂
FREAKY FRIDAY AGAIN………………………
So far 4 out of 5 big CDN banks have reported their latest earnings, Royal Bank, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and National Bank are showing increased earnings, only one Toronto Dominion Bank is doing poorly. TD Bank recently bought a number of US Banks and they have been a big drag on their earnings. DT
/NG JAN. is approaching its .618 retracement of the entire move from April low 1.958……Free site Seasonix.com says lows occur Feb.19-24th……Personally I like it here for a pop and possible re-test early 2024…..If you like Gartley buy set ups this is it……Not today…but this is the set up to utilize….glta
oops…this chart…..https://tos.mx/TLBdrBL
We will have to see, but the recent algo being run this week against my account appears to be the reverse of the long term previous algo. This one starts red and builds toward green. My account opened – .5% red today.
Turned green 40 minutes after open . Now … for the first Day of new month and end of week close…?
TSX.v, this is critical as the index is rising because of mining stocks IMO.
Impact will see this and do a 10 cent move like a bunch of other mining stocks.
FOMO??? Go screw yerself if you didn’t buy in the sub .20 cent zone… You are stupid and listened to the wrong people, IMO.
Impact, IPT…
Powell: ‘Premature’ to conclude Fed rate hikes are over or ‘speculate’ when cuts could begin
Jennifer Schonberger · Yahoo Finance – Fri, December 1, 2023
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered a new warning to investors who believe the Fed is finished raising rates and will soon pivot to cutting, saying the central bank needs to see more evidence that inflation is on its way back to the Fed’s 2% target.”
“It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease,” Powell said Friday in prepared remarks at Spelman College in Atlanta.
February Gold futures (which most platforms are now using) at $2076.
Looks like things are setting up for a really nice weekly close today as well in the yellow metal.
Are you suggesting that the weekly close looks bullish technically???😜
Well, now the Bloomberg Feb futures quote has come back down after 5pm Eastern to reflect $2089.70, which is in harmony with StockCharts close. It was just up to $2091.50 in afterhours trading right before that, but showed a general market close of $2091.20 earlier.
Yahoo now shows $2091.70 as a delayed price, but that was from some afterhours trading as well. Gold actually got up to $2094 at one point in afterhours trading, but not sure if that will get included in the intraday price action on the charts.
Again I was pretty sure gold was up over $2090 for the last 45 minutes of trading during the normal session, but not sure where charting services make the cuttoff.
I guess the point is the same regardless of the platform or range of prices from $2089.70 – $2091.70.
Gold closed at an all-time daily and weekly high, after making an all-time monthly high yesterday.
Game on!
I just got off the phone with the Royal Bank where I brought up the recent trading on Scorpio Gold, SGN, and how the cross platform trading affects the small trader. I encourage anyone that sees sh!t happening to call and ask about why your orders aren’t being displayed or filled.
My next level will be with the TSX.v and the SEC.
I had to go back to IB when they sent a note saying they were capping my San Lorenzo buy because I made an offer at market. I told them to pull my account and see the limit on my trade and if they don’t show it, their program has a glitch. I also told them I already tried their capped price and it was not working. Shortly … my trade went through.
Pop in District Metals is probably due to Swedish Parliament turning around Nuclear ban. Not sure if someone has to approve the Parliament action, but direction seems apparent.
District Metals is not a one-trick pony. This just adds another trick.
The Canadian dollar delivered the action we needed this week…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p57515701259&a=1491282817
I highlighted a silver breakout last week (green arrow) and this week has shown great follow through…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08866154374&a=1199723462